by Ryhor Nizhnikau, Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Content: Since February 2022, Belarus-Russia relations have been an issue of very little interest for outside observers. The new parameters of the bilateral alliance that emerged as a result of their “co-aggression” against Ukraine qualitatively solidified Russia’s dominance in Belarus, but preserved Lukashenka’s autonomy on domestic decision-making. In other words, Lukashenka traded Minsk’s political allegiance to the Kremlin and Belarus’s further loss of some more elements of its already weakened sovereignty for extending the life of his regime.
Yet Minsk could no longer enjoy the status of Russia’s primary ally. Economic subsidies were no longer lavish, while incursions on Lukashenka’s domestic turf intensified. The Trump administration’s wish to de-conflict relations with Moscow made the task of establishing a new balance in relations between Belarus and Russia only more complicated.
This talk, based on several recent publications, such as the book "Russian Policy towards Belarus after 2020: At a Turning Point?" (Lexington Books, 2023, co-edited with Arkady Moshes), will take stock of recent developments in Belarus-Russia relations and Minsk’s reactions to them. It argues that regime’s current activism, both in domestic and foreign policy, in general, and in particular Minsk’s chaotic foreign policy maneuvering in 2024-2025, is an attempt to use the stabilization of the situation inside Belarus, as compared with 2020-2022, to further strengthen its grip on power. The success of the attempt, however, is far from guaranteed.
Bio: Ryhor Nizhnikau works on Russia’s and the EU’s policies towards Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, and studies the institutional transformations and political developments in these countries. His publications include "EU-Induced Change in Post-Soviet Space: Promoting Reforms in Moldova and Ukraine" (Routledge, 2019), and "Russian Policy towards Belarus after 2020: At a Turning Point?" (Lexington Books, 2023), co-edited with Arkady Moshes.