Martin Rypdal
Niklas,
Teng,
Nils,
Martin,
Tim,
Maya
et al.:
Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements
Nature Geoscience 01. Oktober 2025 DOI
Eirik,
Luc,
Martin
:
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Earth System Dynamics (ESD) 24. September 2025 DOI
Nils,
Anna,
Martin,
Niklas
:
Reconstructing historical climate fields with deep learning
Veronika Gjertsen,
Mia,
Martin Wibe,
Ellen Dalen,
Kristiina,
Lillemor
et al.:
Disease activity trajectories from childhood to adulthood in the population-based Nordic juvenile idiopathic arthritis cohort
Anna,
Nils,
Nikolas Olson,
Niklas,
Per Kristen,
Martin Wibe
:
Arctic summer sea ice loss will accelerate in coming decades
Anna,
Nils,
Niklas,
Martin Wibe
:
Increasing fluctuations in the Arctic summer sea ice cover are expected with future global warming
Magdalena A.,
Audun,
Martin Wibe,
Odd Erik
:
Apparent universality of 1/f spectra as an artifact of finite-size effects
Nils,
Anna,
Alexander,
Marisa,
Martin Wibe,
Niklas
:
Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet
Eirik,
Keno,
Martin Wibe,
Niklas
:
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records
Martin Wibe,
Veronika Gjertsen,
Per Kristen,
Elinor,
Ola,
Claus
et al.:
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic
Martin Wibe,
Kristoffer,
Ola,
Sigrunn Holbek,
Elinor,
Filippo Maria
:
Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020
Martin Wibe,
Niklas,
Hege-Beate,
Kai-Uwe,
Andreas,
Andreas Rostrup
et al.:
Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6
Niklas,
Martin Wibe
:
Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 2021 DOI
Erlend Hoftun,
Martin,
Morten,
Olöf Anna,
Tormod,
Audun
et al.:
To tolerate weather and to tolerate pain: two sides of the same coin? The Tromsø Study 7
Andrew,
Veronika Gjertsen,
Martin Wibe,
Thomas,
Ellen Berit,
Jaime
:
Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis part 2: Results of the Nordic model in the Canadian cohort
Christian,
Susana,
Richard,
Hege-Beate,
Thomas,
Fabrice
et al.:
The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales
Eirik,
Sigrunn Holbek,
Hege-Beate,
Håvard,
Martin Wibe
:
Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Kristoffer,
Martin
:
A Parsimonious Description and Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Curves
Kristoffer,
Filippo Maria,
Martin
:
Intervention Fatigue is the Primary Cause of Strong Secondary Waves in the COVID-19 Pandemic
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH) 2020 DOI
Nicole,
Ethan R,,
Marta S.,
Andrew J.,
Marissa L.,
Martin
et al.:
Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics
Ecology Letters 2020 DOI
Martin wibe,
George
:
Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
Eirik,
Hege-Beate,
Sigrunn Holbek,
Martin wibe
:
Warming trends and long-range dependent climate variability since year 1900: A Bayesian approach
Veronika Gjertsen,
Jaime,
Andrew,
Thomas,
Mia,
Ellen Dalen
et al.:
Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: part 1-results of the Canadian model in the Nordic cohort
Martin wibe,
Veronika Gjertsen,
Jennifer A.,
Daniel,
Emelia,
Shannon
et al.:
Clustering and climate associations of Kawasaki Disease in San Diego County suggest environmental triggers
Tine,
Johannes,
Dmitry V,
Martin wibe
:
Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory
Martin wibe,
Hege-Beate,
Eirik,
Kristoffer,
Sigrunn Holbek
:
Emergent scale invariance and climate sensitivity
Martin wibe,
Hege-Beate,
Kristoffer,
Rebekka
:
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity
Nature 2018 DOI
Veronika Gjertsen,
Ellen Dalen,
Kristiina,
Lillemor,
Maria,
Anders
et al.:
Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Results from the Nordic cohort study
Nils,
Anna,
Alexander,
Marisa,
Martin Wibe,
Niklas
:
Author Correction: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet (Nature, (2023), 622, 7983, (528-536), 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9)
Nature 2023 DOI
Nils,
Anna,
Martin,
Alexander,
Niklas
:
Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet
2023
Nils,
Anna,
Alexander,
Marisa,
Martin Wibe,
Niklas
:
Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet
2023
Anna,
Nils,
Martin
:
Arctic summer sea-ice loss will accelerate in coming decades
2022
Anna,
Nils,
Martin
:
Analysis of Early-Warning Signals for Arctic Summer Sea Ice Loss
2022
Veronika,
Mia,
Martin Wibe,
Ellen Dalen,
Kristiina,
Lillemor
et al.:
O24: Disease activity measures in Juvenile idiopathic arthritis from childhood to adulthood in the Nordic JIA cohort
Pediatric Rheumatology 07. September 2022 DOI
Eirik,
Niklas,
Martin Wibe,
Keno
:
Quantification of the dating uncertainties in Greenland ice core records
2021
Eirik,
Niklas,
Martin Wibe,
Keno
:
A statistical model for dating uncertainties in Greenland ice core records
2021
Geir,
Antonella Zanna,
Einar,
Martin Wibe,
Ingvald,
Heidi
et al.:
Eksamen i matematikk er på ville veier
Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.) 10. Mai 2021 FULLTEKST
Odd Erik,
Martin Wibe
:
Nytt UiT-senter skal forske på klimaendringer: - Vil det fortsatt være skrei i Lofoten?
14. Februar 2020
Odd Erik,
Martin Wibe,
Nigel
:
Skal lede felles senter for klimaforskning
04. Februar 2020
Odd Erik,
Martin Wibe,
Nigel
:
Disse skal bidra til å løse vår tids største utfordringer
26. Januar 2020 FULLTEKST
Odd Erik,
Martin Wibe,
Nigel
:
Vi får titusenvis av år med ren energi hvis vi får dette til
05. Februar 2020
Eirik,
Sigrunn Holbek,
Hege-Beate,
Martin wibe
:
A statistical model for global surface temperature response to radiative forcing with long-range dependent noise
2019
Sigrunn Holbek,
Eirik,
Martin wibe,
Hege-Beate,
Håvard
:
Bayesian analysis of temperature series accounting for long-range dependence and climate forcing
2019
Veronika Gjertsen,
Jaime,
A,
T,
Mia,
Ellen Dalen
et al.:
SAT0628 Validation of methods for predicting long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Results for Canadian and Nordic prediction models in the Nordic cohort.
Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases 2019 DOI
Audun,
Odd Erik,
Martin wibe
:
Power-law scaling of uncorrelated plasma bursts
2019 ARKIV
Audun,
Martin wibe
:
Climate Response to Volcanic Forcing
2019
Martin wibe,
Veronika Gjertsen,
Jennifer A.,
Daniel,
Emelia,
Shannon
et al.:
Author Correction: Clustering and climate associations of Kawasaki Disease in San Diego County suggest environmental triggers
Scientific Reports 2019 DOI
Hege-Beate,
Martin wibe,
Kristoffer
:
At which spatiotemporal scales, and in which climate states, can the linear temperature response hypothesis be rejected by data?
2018
Eirik,
Sigrunn Holbek,
Martin wibe,
Hege-Beate,
Håvard
:
Modeling global surface temperatures in terms of climate forcing and a long-memory stochastic process
2018
Eirik,
Sigrunn Holbek,
Martin wibe,
Hege-Beate,
Håvard
:
Modeling global surface temperatures in terms of climate forcing and a long-memory stochastic process
2018
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Member of research group
CV
STILLINGER
2017-present: Professor og instituttleder, Institutt for matematikk og statistikk, UiT
2012-2017: Førsteamanuensis, Institutt for matematikk og statistikk, UiT
2009-2012: Post doc. med personlig stipend fra Norges forskningsråd
2008-2009: Forsker ved NORUT
2004-2008: Stipendiat med personlig stipend fra Norges forskningsråd
UTDANNING
2008: PhD i matematikk fra UiT: Dynamical and Stochastic Aspects of Self-Organized Critical Systems. (Disputas 08.11.2008)
2004: Cand. Scient. i matematikk, UiT
PRISER
Fakultetets undervisningspris (2007 and 2015)
VEILEDNING
• Hovedveileder for PhD-studenter (O. Løvsletten var ferdig i 2014 and H.-B. Fredriksen var ferdig i 2017)
• Biveileder for PhD-studenter (T. Nilsen and A. Theodorsen)
• Veileder for 16 masterstudenter (Martinsen, Johansen, Mentzoni, Sund, Løvsletten, Polina, Checkanova, Smolkova, Zankova, Jespersen, Myklebust, Skagseth, Holmstrand, Grabovskaia, Tranås, Yong)
UNDERVISNING
• Specialized curriculum in Industrial Mathematics (2009, 2014, 2016)
• Kalkulus 1 (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017)
• Kalkulus 2 (2005, 2014, 2016)
• Lineær algebra (2007, 2013)
• Chaos and Fractals (2004)
• Forkurs i matematikk (2005)
STYRER OG KOMITEER
• Medlem i bærekraftkomiteen (siden 2019)
• Representant i Fakultetstyret (NT-fak, UiT) (2014-2018)
MOBILITET
• Norwegian University of Science and Technology (Sep. 2010-Des. 2010).
• University of Granada, Spain (Apr. 2015-Mai 2015).
• University of California San Diego (Jan. 2017 - Jun. 2017).
ERFARING UTENFOR AKADEMIA
• Konsulent for Olympiatoppen (2013-2015)
• Foredragsholder for Olympiatoppen (2012)
• Invitert foredragsholder på konferansen til friidrettens trenerforening (2006)
• Instruktør ved idrettshøyskolen, UiT (2012, 2013 and 2014).
• Koordinator for studenter med toppidrettsatus (2010-2015)
• Trener for tre norske mesterskap i stafett .
Egne idrettsprestasjoner:
• Norsk mester på 100m (2005 and 2006)
• Norsk mester på 60m (2003, 2004, 2005 and 2010)
• Norsk mester på 200m (2001,2002 and 2005)
• Semifinale på 60m i EM (2007)
• Kvartfinale på 100m i EM (2006)
• Troms Idrettskrets Hederstegn (2010)
LEDERERFARING
• UiTs prosjekt "The Dynamics of the Climate in the Arctic".
• Analyse av markedsrisiko. Prosjekt med Sparebank-1 Nord-Norge og Norges Forskningsråd
• “Long-range memory in Earth’s climate response and the implications for future global warming“. The project is funded by the NRC (project number 229754-E10).
• Leder for en gruppe sprintere i Tromsø 2003-2011. Laget vant flere norske mesterskap.
FORMIDLING
• Kan vi forutse epidemier?
• Breakthrough in predicting dengue fever outbreaks
• Breakthrough predicting dengue fever outbreaks
• UiT-forsker med gjennombrudd: Modell kan forutsi omfanget av dengue-epidemier
• Media mente forskerne avlyste «klimaskrekkscenario»: Dette fant vi da vi gikk studien deres i sømmene
• Kawasaki’s disease: one disease multiple triggers
• “En Felles Arena”. Sammen med K. Rypdal. (2008)
• Kan vi forutse renteendringer? (sammen med G. Andreassen), NT-fakultetet (2011)
• Presentasjon av anvendt matematikk. Kongsbakken vgs and Nordkjosbotn vgs (2011)
• Gøy med fraktaler. Nord-Norsk Vitensenter. (2011)
• Presentasjon av Matematikk og finans. Nord-Norsk Vitensenter (2011)
Artikler i aviser/magasiner:
• “Rasende Dynamikk”. (with K. Rypdal), Avisa Nordlys (2008)
• “Hva bestemmer nivået?” (with K. Rypdal), Bladet Friidrett (2006)
FORSKNINGSARTIKLER
- Rypdal M., N. Boers, H.-B. Fredriksen, K.-U. Eiselt, A. Johansen, A. Martinsen, E. F. Mentzoni, R. Graversen, and K. Rypdal Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Emulators of CMIP6 Models, in review at Communications Earth and Environment
- Nova N., E. R. Deyle, M. S. Shocket, A. J. MacDonald, M. L. Childs, M. Rypdal, G. Sugihara, E. A. Mordecai, Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics, Accepted in Ecology Letters November 2020 doi:10.1111/ele.13652
- Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, A parsimonious description and cross-country analysis of COVID-19 epidemic curve, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17(18), 2020, 6487 (Link to paper)
- Rypdal M., Rypdal V., Jakobsen P., Ytterstad E., Løvsletten O., Klingenberg C., Rypdal K., Modelling Suggests Limited Change in the Reproduction Number from Reopening Norwegian Kindergartens and Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic (Link to preprint)
- Rypdal, M. and G. Sugihara, Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics, Nature Communications 10, 2019, 2374 (Link to paper)
- Rypdal V., J. Guzman, A. Henrey, T. Loughin, M. Glerup, E. D. Arnstad, K. Aalto, M. Rygg, S. Nielsen, T. Herlin, A. Fasth, L. Berntson, M. Rypdal, E. Nordal, Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: part 1—results of the Canadian model in the Nordic cohort, Arthritis Research & Therapy 21, 2019 (Link to paper)
- Henrey A., V. Rypdal, M. Rypdal, T. Loughin, E. Nordal, and J. Guzman, for the ReACCh-Out and NoSPeR Investigators,Validation of prediction models of severe disease course and non-achievement of remission in juvenile idiopathic arthritis part 2: results of the Nordic model in the Canadian cohort, Arthritis Research & Therapy 22, 2020 (Link to paper)
- Myrvoll-Nilsen, E., S. H. Sørbye, H.-B. Fredriksen, H. Rue, M. Rypdal, Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling, Earth System Dynamics (2020), 11, 329–345. (Link to paper).
- Myrvoll-Nilsen, E. H-B. Fredriksen, S. H. Sørbye, M. Rypdal, Warming trends and long-range dependent climate variability since year 1900: a Bayesian approach. Frontiers in Earth Science 7, 2019, 214 (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, M., H.-B. Fredriksen, E. Myrvold-Nilsen, S. H. Sørbye and K. Rypdal, Emergent Scale Invariance and Climate Sensitivity, Climate, 2018. 6(4), 93. (Link to paper)
- Franzke, C., S. Barbosa, R. Blender, H.-B. Fredriksen, T. Laepple, F. Lambert, T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, M. Rypdal, M. G. Scotto, S. Vannitsem, N. W. Watkins, L. Yang, N. Yuan, The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales, Reviews of Geophysics, 2020 58, e2019RG000657 (Link to paper).
- Nilsen, T., J. P. Werner, D. V. Divine and M. Rypdal, Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory, Climate of the Past, 2018. 14: p. 947-967. (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, V., E. D. Arnstad, K. Aalto, L. Berntson, M. Ekelund, A. Fasth, M. Glerup, T. Herlin, S. Nielsen, S. Peltoniemi, M. Zak, M. Rygg, M. Rypdal, E. Nordal, Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Results from the Nordic cohort study, Arthritis Research & Therapy 2018, 20:91 (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, M., H.-B. Fredriksen, K. Rypdal and R. Steene, Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity, Nature 2018, 563: p. E4-E5. (link to paper)
- Rypdal, M., V. Rypdal, J. A. Burney, D. Cayan, E. Bainto, S. Skochko, A. H. Tremoulet, J. Creamean, C. Shimizu, J. Kim and J. C. Burns, Clustering and climate associations of Kawasaki Disease in San Diego County suggest environmental triggers, Scientific Reports 2018. 8: 16140. (link to paper)
- Fredriksen, H-.B. and M. Rypdal, Long-range persistence in global surface temperatures explained by linear multi-box energy balance models, Journal of Climate, 2017. 30: p. 7157-7168. (Link to paper)
- Theodorsen A., O. E. Garcia and M. Rypdal, Statistical properties of a filtered Poisson process with additive random noise: distributions, correlations and moment estimation, Physica Scripta, 2017, 92(5), 054002. (preprint)
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Late Quaternary temperature variability described as abrupt transitions on a 1/f noise background. Earth System Dynamics, 2016. 7: p. 281-293. (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, M., Early-Warning Signals for the onsets of Greenland Interstadials and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. Journal of Climate, 2016. 29(11): p. 4047-4056. (Link to paper)
- Løvsletten, O. and M. Rypdal, Statistics of Regional Surface Temperatures after 1900: Long-Range versus Short-Range Dependence and Significance of Warming Trends, Journal of Climate, 2016. 29(11): p. 4057-4068. (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, Comment on "Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing" by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2016. (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, K., M. Rypdal, and S. Holm, Detection and attribution: how is the solar signal identified and distinguished from the response to other forcings?, in Earth's climate response to a changing Sun. 2015, EDP Sciences. p. 345.
- Rypdal, K., M. Rypdal, and H.-B. Fredriksen, Spatiotemporal long-range persistence in earth's temperature field: Analysis of stochastic-diffusive energy balance models. Journal of Climate, 2015. 28(21): p. 8379-8395. (Link to paper)
- Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, Modeled impact of total solar irradiance (TSI) forcing, in Earth's climate response to a changing Sun. 2015, EDP Sciences. p. 345.
- Østvand, L., K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal, Statistical significance of rising and oscillatory trends in global ocean and land temperature in the past 160 years. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2014. 5: p. 327-362. (Link to discussion)
- Østvand, L., T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, D. Divine, V., and M. Rypdal, Long-range memory in internal and forced dynamics of millennium-long climate model simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 2014. 5(2): p. 295-308.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Long-memory effects in linear response models of Earth's temperature and implications for future global warming. Journal of Climate, 2014. 27(14): p. 5240-5258.
- Rypdal, M., E. Sirnes, O. Løvsletten, and K. Rypdal, Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013: p. 8.
- Rypdal, M. and O. Løvsletten, Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2013. 392(1): p. 194-207.
- Rypdal, K., L. Østvand, and M. Rypdal, Long-range memory in Earth's surface temperature on time scales from months to centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2013. 118(13): p. 7046-7062.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Is there long-range memory in solar activity on timescales shorter than the sunspot period? Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2012. 117: p. 11.
- Rypdal, K. and M. Rypdal, Stochastic properties of solar activity proxies. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, 2012. 33: p. 227-232.
- Løvsletten, O. and M. Rypdal, Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks. Physical Review E. Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2012. 85(4): p. 8.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Discerning a linkage between solar wind turbulence and ionospheric dissipation by a method of confined multifractal motions. Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2011. 226: p. A02202.
- Rypdal, K., B. Klumov, B. Kozelov, R. Kube, and M. Rypdal, Exploring the Analogy Between Freezing of a 2D Yukawa Liquid and 2D Decaying Turbulence in Fluids. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2011. 1397(1): p. 72-77.
- Hall, C., K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal, The E region at 69 degrees N, 19 degrees E: Trends, significances, and detectability. Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2011. 116: p. A05309.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Testing Hypotheses about Sun-Climate Complexity Linking. Physical Review Letters, 2010. 104(12): p. 4.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Stochastic modeling of the AE index and its relation to fluctuations in B-z of the IMF on time scales shorter than substorm duration. Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics, 2010. 115: p. 15.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Rypdal and Rypdal reply. A Reply to the Comment by Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West. Physical Review Letters, 2010. 105(21): p. 219802.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, A stochastic theory for temporal fluctuations in self-organized critical systems. New Journal of Physics, 2008. 10: p. 123010/1-11.
- Rypdal, K., B.V. Kozelov, S. Ratynskaia, B. Klumov, C. Knapek, and M. Rypdal, Scale-free vortex cascade emerging from random forcing in a strongly coupled system. New Journal of Physics, 2008. 10: p. 093018.
- Rypdal, K., M. Rypdal, T. Zivkovic, and B.V. Kozelov, Complexity in astro and geospace systems: the turbulence versus SOC controversy. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2007. 932: p. 203-208.
- Kruglikov, B.S. and M. Rypdal, Entropy via multiplicity. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, 2006. 16: p. 395-410.
- Kruglikov, B.S. and M. Rypdal, Dynamics and entropy in the Zhang model of self-organized criticality. Journal of statistical physics, 2006. 122.
- Kruglikov, B.S. and M. Rypdal, A piece-wise affine contracting map with positive entropy. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, 2006. 16: p. 393-394.
- Rypdal, M. and K. Rypdal, Modelling temporal fluctuations in avalanching systems. Physical Review E, 2008. 78, 051127.